In Georgia’s recent history, we face a critical, perhaps decisive, moment again. Over the past few years, Europe’s increased attention and actions have brought our country closer to the European Union than ever before. However, we are now hearing alarming statements from the West and the beginning of a sanctions process. How far can this process go? Is it possible to maintain relations with Russia, and if so, what might the consequences be? What impact could the ongoing war in Ukraine have on our European prospects? To discuss these questions, Fortuna spoke with Gigi Gigiadze, Senior Economic Policy Research Center Researcher, former Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, and former Ambassador of Georgia to Denmark and Iceland.
Crucial Elections: Potential Consequences of Sanctions
We are approaching critical elections that have been given the status of a referendum. Europe is watching closely. How far can sanctions go? Will they affect the general public or remain in the political sphere? What kind of reaction can we expect if the desired outcome is not achieved?
Gigi Gigiadze: “October 26 will indeed be a watershed moment when the Georgian population must choose between the past and the future. However, the starting point will be the quality and transparency of the elections and the assessments made by international observers. Of course, no one can dictate to the Georgian people their choice. People must decide for themselves what they support. However, adhering to existing laws and regulations, this process must be as transparent and fair as possible.
Given the high level of interest in these elections, we will have assessments from many sides; they will follow the process in detail, and no small mistake will be forgiven. Western partners will specifically evaluate these elections. If they are not appropriately conducted, Georgia could lose many benefits, such as candidate status, visa liberalization, and the benefits outlined in the Association Agreement. A high assessment of the elections will be crucial. Otherwise, we should expect continued sanctions. We must understand that no historical precedent exists for a country becoming an EU member under a sanctioned government.”
Concerns About Visa Liberalization
The general public is most concerned about the potential loss of the visa-free regime. Could it come to that?
Gigi Gigiadze: “We can consider various scenarios regarding what types of sanctions the European Union might impose if there is a decline in democratic standards. One possibility is a review of the visa regime. This would be extremely unpleasant and negative. I don’t want to say that this will happen, but the EU has this tool and the ability to suspend candidate status and many others. In short, there could be a multifaceted reaction.”
The Fine Line Between Support and Interference
You have worked in diplomatic services, so I want to ask: where is the line between “if you are coming into our house, you must accept our rules” and interfering in a country’s internal decisions? I’m not necessarily referring to the “transparency law” or issues related to family values…
Gigi Gigiadze: “For Western partners, the starting point is the declared will of the Georgian people. We know that the absolute majority has consistently supported EU integration for the last ten years. The Georgian people are giving the government a particular task: rapid integration into the EU and NATO, security guarantees, and maximum rapprochement with the European family. Recently, the government has come into conflict not with the West but with its people. Furthermore, we are hearing anti-Western rhetoric—’We don’t want this kind of Europe, we will correct this kind of Europe, is this the Europe you want?’
We must understand that there is no coercion from Europe. Georgia is the side that wants to join and improve the quality of life. There are essential prerequisites for this, which we must follow. These are outlined in the Association Agreement, a comprehensive document to which we are committed. Where are we today? After the 12 recommendations, we now have 9 steps to take. It’s much more straightforward—just nine steps to discuss the European future and start negotiations. There are discussions within the EU, and they have not reached a consensus on specific issues. This is a topic of dialogue, and there is no coercion; this must be ruled out from the outset. Through dialogue, compromises are reached. The EU ensures the identity of each country to the fullest. I worked in Denmark for four years. Danes are even more protective of their identity and Danishness than we are. They are guaranteed to protect this. A simple example is the krone. They want to have their currency with their queen’s image. The EU ensures this. The main motto is—unity in diversity. Once again, the main message is the path of negotiations. We talk, and through discussion, we reach an agreement.”
The Role of Russia in Conflict Resolution
In life, warm words can resolve conflicts, but how often does this happen in big politics? Can important issues like territorial disputes be resolved with kind words? Can territorial integrity be restored peacefully?
Gigi Gigiadze: “We clearly state that we plan to restore territorial integrity only through peaceful means, with more parties’ involvement, ensuring territorial integrity and the protection of sovereignty. Recent history has shown us that where Russia is involved, problems cannot be solved because of it. Russia is a force that tries to prolong conflicts as much as possible, hinder dialogue between people, reconciliation, and progress to a new stage. No one in Georgia is naive enough to believe that any ethnic conflict can be resolved with Russia’s intervention. It has no interest in this. Russia will never be interested in stability, democracy, or development in its neighboring countries because such countries will be difficult to control. Russia will never be a positive influence on the settlement of ethnic conflicts in Georgia.”
The War in Ukraine and Its Impact on Georgia
Suppose Ukraine—or rather the West—achieves success in the war with Russia. Will it have enough resources to maintain this advantage and influence over former USSR territories in the long term if the war ends the way we all want, in a way that would benefit Georgia as well?
Gigi Gigiadze: “There is no alternative. The only solution is Ukraine’s victory and restoring its territories, including Crimea. Often, we hear statements like, ‘The process has frozen, there is no progress, what can be done…’ I believe such statements serve Russia’s interests. However, the situation has changed recently; Ukraine has gone on the offensive, and freezing is no longer possible. It turns out that Russia must cede its territory. The Ukrainian offensive was justified by excluding such dialogues.
In Ukraine, we are witnessing an attack on the international order and norms. If Russia gets away with this behavior, it will continue the same tactics after regrouping its forces. The West must fully protect the international order; there is no alternative. If any form of status quo is maintained, it is a precondition for Russia to continue its aggression against other European countries. Georgia was the first foreign target. In 2008, there was direct annexation, occupation, and then recognition. The insufficient response from the West largely determined what Russia did next. It felt it could get away with it. The mistakes and wrong messages towards Russia led to the belief that even more could be achieved.
This process must end with a clear victory for Ukraine. The West must guarantee Ukraine’s sovereignty, and then we will see what processes will start within Russia. Russia is paying a high price, and this cost will only increase. Next year, we will see serious problems arise for them, though I don’t want to make long-term predictions. For now, the situation is that Russia is failing to achieve any of its goals.”
