Author: Lajos Bódis, eurofocus.hu
Within the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe’s convergence with the West has only been partly successful. Poland and the Baltic states have seen impressive income growth, but Hungary and Slovakia still sit at barely 40% of Austria’s and Germany’s median income. In terms of life expectancy, Slovenia has caught up with the West, but Bulgaria has fallen behind, and the pandemic caused setbacks across the region. While the populations of the Czech Republic and Slovakia have grown, Croatia and Hungary have continued to shrink. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the region’s weaker crisis resilience, and population decline remains a serious issue.
Since joining the EU, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have followed divergent paths.
In the 2024 edition of Social Report, István György Tóth and Ábel Csathó offer a new approach: instead of comparing progress to the EU average, they examine how much the new member states have caught up with the Western countries their own citizens see as benchmarks. For Central Europe, that means Germany and Austria; for the Baltic states, Scandinavia. The comparison produced several surprising results.
The study found that countries in the region have been unequally successful in catching up. They have closed some of the gap in economic performance and poverty reduction, but social outcomes are more mixed. While living standards have improved in some respects, life expectancy and demographic trends still vary widely. The pandemic revealed that newer member states are less capable of handling crises than their Western counterparts.
The analysis covers the “EU11”: the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), the Visegrád countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), plus Croatia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Most joined in 2004, Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, and Croatia in 2013.
There are also differences in eurozone membership: Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Slovenia have adopted the euro. But joining alone doesn’t guarantee convergence — much depends on national policy and governance.
All Central and Eastern European countries transitioned from planned to market economies, and from dictatorship to liberal democracy. Yet after accession, they pursued different economic and social strategies, leading to uneven development.
The research distinguishes three subregions: Baltic, Central European, and Southeastern. Each subregion of the EU11 is shown in different colors, with matching shades used for their reference countries.
The north shows the strongest convergence trends: the Baltics have closed the gap with Finland and Sweden in both economic and demographic terms. Romania and Bulgaria made gains in income and poverty reduction, though their reference states, Italy and Spain, have not always provided stable models.
Central Europe presents a mixed picture. In education and fertility, the region has moved closer to Germany and Austria, but not in median income or life expectancy. Some countries have done notably well: Poland in income growth, Slovenia in life expectancy.
Population trends vary too. The Baltic states have managed to halt post-transition population loss and emigration (first to Russia, later to Scandinavia). Some Central European countries — Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia — also saw growth. Croatia’s population, however, has fallen by one-fifth, while Hungary’s has been declining steadily since the 1980s. Meanwhile, developed countries like Sweden and Spain have grown, deepening the gap. Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 everywhere, as families have children later, which poses long-term risks.
The starkest disadvantage for the new member states compared to their Western benchmarks remains life expectancy. Slovenia has caught up, but Bulgaria has fallen further behind. In the Baltics, early post-communist declines stemmed from state enterprise collapses, long-term unemployment among low-skilled workers, and rising alcoholism — all hurting health outcomes. Croatia’s war years caused a sharp fall in life expectancy.
The pandemic hit especially hard: Western healthcare systems handled it better, while excess mortality was higher in the East. Even Estonia’s steady rise in life expectancy stalled for the first time in 25 years. One of the new members’ biggest successes, however, is the dramatic drop in infant mortality — particularly in Romania and Bulgaria, where rates in 1990 were six and three times higher than today. Now, infant mortality in the EU11 has fallen below 5 per thousand — a key sign of progress.
The economy: the stronger side
In economic adaptation, the new EU members have done better. Labor participation improved, meaning more people can make a living from work rather than depend on welfare. But income convergence has been uneven.
Northern and southern entrants doubled or more their relative incomes to benchmark countries, while Central European ones lagged. The Baltics’ performance was matched only by Poland. Disparities between the new members themselves are also wide. For context: Hungarian and Slovak median incomes are about 40% of Austrian and German levels; Czechia’s exceeds 60%, Slovenia’s over 70%.
(Source: Authors’ calculations, Eurostat [tepsr_wc310])
Inequality and education
Income inequality has widened in the new member states — a byproduct of economic transformation — but severe material deprivation has declined, and the countries have gradually converged both with Western benchmarks and with one another. The share of low-educated people, most vulnerable to unemployment, has shrunk, though gaps remain.
In higher education — a key indicator for economic growth and social mobility — Scandinavia and the Baltic states lead. Central Europe’s rising university attainment and its progress toward German levels also support growth. Southern Europe shows weaker expansion, except for Spain, which ranks among the EU’s most dynamic in expanding higher education.
The convergence of Central and Eastern Europe shows a mixed pattern. Economic growth and some living standard indicators have narrowed the gap, but social and health outcomes still lag. Each country has followed its own path — progress continues, but catching up to Western Europe remains a long journey.
Within the European Union, Central and Eastern Europe’s convergence with the West has only been partly successful. Poland and the Baltic states have seen impressive income growth, but Hungary and Slovakia still sit at barely 40% of Austria’s and Germany’s median income. In terms of life expectancy, Slovenia has caught up with the West, but Bulgaria has fallen behind, and the pandemic caused setbacks across the region. While the populations of the Czech Republic and Slovakia have grown, Croatia and Hungary have continued to shrink. The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the region’s weaker crisis resilience, and population decline remains a serious issue.
Since joining the EU, the countries of Central and Eastern Europe have followed divergent paths.
In the 2024 edition of Social Report, István György Tóth and Ábel Csathó offer a new approach: instead of comparing progress to the EU average, they examine how much the new member states have caught up with the Western countries their own citizens see as benchmarks. For Central Europe, that means Germany and Austria; for the Baltic states, Scandinavia. The comparison produced several surprising results.
The study found that countries in the region have been unequally successful in catching up. They have closed some of the gap in economic performance and poverty reduction, but social outcomes are more mixed. While living standards have improved in some respects, life expectancy and demographic trends still vary widely. The pandemic revealed that newer member states are less capable of handling crises than their Western counterparts.
The analysis covers the “EU11”: the Baltic states (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), the Visegrád countries (Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia), plus Croatia, Slovenia, Romania, and Bulgaria. Most joined in 2004, Bulgaria and Romania in 2007, and Croatia in 2013.
There are also differences in eurozone membership: Estonia, Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Slovakia, and Slovenia have adopted the euro. But joining alone doesn’t guarantee convergence — much depends on national policy and governance.
All Central and Eastern European countries transitioned from planned to market economies, and from dictatorship to liberal democracy. Yet after accession, they pursued different economic and social strategies, leading to uneven development.
The research distinguishes three subregions: Baltic, Central European, and Southeastern. Each subregion of the EU11 is shown in different colors, with matching shades used for their reference countries.
The north shows the strongest convergence trends: the Baltics have closed the gap with Finland and Sweden in both economic and demographic terms. Romania and Bulgaria made gains in income and poverty reduction, though their reference states, Italy and Spain, have not always provided stable models.
Central Europe presents a mixed picture. In education and fertility, the region has moved closer to Germany and Austria, but not in median income or life expectancy. Some countries have done notably well: Poland in income growth, Slovenia in life expectancy.
Population trends vary too. The Baltic states have managed to halt post-transition population loss and emigration (first to Russia, later to Scandinavia). Some Central European countries — Czechia, Slovakia, and Slovenia — also saw growth. Croatia’s population, however, has fallen by one-fifth, while Hungary’s has been declining steadily since the 1980s. Meanwhile, developed countries like Sweden and Spain have grown, deepening the gap. Fertility rates have fallen below the replacement level of 2.1 everywhere, as families have children later, which poses long-term risks.
The starkest disadvantage for the new member states compared to their Western benchmarks remains life expectancy. Slovenia has caught up, but Bulgaria has fallen further behind. In the Baltics, early post-communist declines stemmed from state enterprise collapses, long-term unemployment among low-skilled workers, and rising alcoholism — all hurting health outcomes. Croatia’s war years caused a sharp fall in life expectancy.
The pandemic hit especially hard: Western healthcare systems handled it better, while excess mortality was higher in the East. Even Estonia’s steady rise in life expectancy stalled for the first time in 25 years. One of the new members’ biggest successes, however, is the dramatic drop in infant mortality — particularly in Romania and Bulgaria, where rates in 1990 were six and three times higher than today. Now, infant mortality in the EU11 has fallen below 5 per thousand — a key sign of progress.
The economy: the stronger side
In economic adaptation, the new EU members have done better. Labor participation improved, meaning more people can make a living from work rather than depend on welfare. But income convergence has been uneven.
Northern and southern entrants doubled or more their relative incomes to benchmark countries, while Central European ones lagged. The Baltics’ performance was matched only by Poland. Disparities between the new members themselves are also wide. For context: Hungarian and Slovak median incomes are about 40% of Austrian and German levels; Czechia’s exceeds 60%, Slovenia’s over 70%.
(Source: Authors’ calculations, Eurostat [tepsr_wc310])
Inequality and education
Income inequality has widened in the new member states — a byproduct of economic transformation — but severe material deprivation has declined, and the countries have gradually converged both with Western benchmarks and with one another. The share of low-educated people, most vulnerable to unemployment, has shrunk, though gaps remain.
In higher education — a key indicator for economic growth and social mobility — Scandinavia and the Baltic states lead. Central Europe’s rising university attainment and its progress toward German levels also support growth. Southern Europe shows weaker expansion, except for Spain, which ranks among the EU’s most dynamic in expanding higher education.
The convergence of Central and Eastern Europe shows a mixed pattern. Economic growth and some living standard indicators have narrowed the gap, but social and health outcomes still lag. Each country has followed its own path — progress continues, but catching up to Western Europe remains a long journey.
