U.S. President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump held their first pre-election debate. The election is scheduled for November 5. CNN conducted the discussion. Several aides accompanied both candidates. No audience members were in the studio, but First Lady Jill Biden and a few Republicans were present.
The hosts asked the candidates questions on high inflation, abortion rights, illegal migration, Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, support for Kyiv, combating climate change, and acknowledging election results. Both candidates avoided several questions, mostly repeating pre-prepared theses.
The U.S. President tried to convince his compatriots that he could lead the country for another term and that only he could stand up to Putin and stop China. Biden attributed his debate loss to fatigue from travel.
The President called his poor debate performance a “bad episode” rather than a reflection of his health condition. In an interview with ABC, Biden emphasized that an independent medical check-up (which would show voters he is ready for another term) was unnecessary.
When asked how he would turn the election race around, Biden highlighted large and energetic rallies, similar to those held in Wisconsin, as a critical moment. He was reminded that Trump usually gathers more people, to which the President attacked his opponent: “Trump is a pathological liar.”
“We look like a third-world country, it’s a disgrace,” Trump declared from the debate stage. “We are no longer respected,” he continued, accusing Biden. “He is the worst president in American history,” Biden later responded, “He has no understanding of American democracy.”
Both candidates are the oldest in U.S. history: Democrat Biden is 81, Republican Trump is 78.
Political analyst Buka Petriashvili: “The presidential campaign in the U.S. is gaining full force.
The debates were important. Joe Biden admitted that he did not do well. People are now seriously discussing what might happen if Donald Trump returns. Everyone is interested in what will happen regarding Ukraine and NATO. Everyone remembers Trump’s constant statements about NATO and the expenses of its member countries. His position on Ukraine remains somewhat unclear.”
The candidates have radically different views on how to govern the U.S. from January 2025 and what role the country should play in world affairs as a military superpower. Biden advocates for maintaining close ties with European allies, while Trump takes a more isolationist stance. Biden urges Western countries to unite in support of Ukraine. Trump expressed doubts about military aid. The former President said he would quickly resolve the conflict but did not specify how.
Kakha Gogolashvili (Director of the European Studies Center): “It is hard to say what will change if Trump returns. He is a man of circumstances. We cannot trust any of his statements. He often makes impulsive statements and is unpredictable. So, it is not out of the question that he could change his position by 180 degrees. Trump was notable for almost dismantling Euro-Atlantic unity. It would be better if Biden won. It’s unfortunate that the Democrats couldn’t choose a younger and more energetic candidate. The Republicans could have done better, too. The U.S. President should be a much more stable person.”
As early as December, former Pentagon chief Mark Esper said on MSNBC that Trump could dissolve NATO. Trump’s return would destroy the old continent.
If Donald Trump wins, Putin will gain more power, says former U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry. In an interview with The Times, Kerry said that Trump would “put America first” and leave Ukraine to fend for itself. “The Kremlin expects Trump to win, making it easier to deal with and reach agreements,” Buka Petriashvili told Fortuna.
Trump has repeatedly criticized the scale of support for Ukraine, stating that if re-elected, he would “immediately resolve the issue.” “Trump has attacked NATO harshly. NATO has become a key component around which Europe has united since World War II. For the United States, abandoning support for Ukraine would be senseless,” Kerry stated.
“Let’s not forget that it was Trump’s directive that led his faction in Congress to halt aid to Ukraine for six months, practically stopping it for nine months. This almost led Ukraine to defeat and posed a significant risk of its loss,” said Kakha Gogolashvili.
Trump’s victory could turn into a catastrophe for Ukraine, writes TNI. Of course, there is no guarantee that the foreign policy vector will change radically if Trump comes to power, but there is a severe precondition. Donald Trump is a bold person. Let’s remember his strict policies on immigration and his promise to complete the wall with Mexico (he didn’t manage to finish it as Biden came to power and halted the project’s funding). However, Trump needs Congress’s approval to withdraw the U.S. from NATO. Still, he can only undermine American guarantees by officially leaving the alliance.
But things might be more complex. Kakha Gogolashvili notes: “At the same time, we must consider that the Senate and Congress have significant power. The President alone does not decide. There is a good balance among institutions. However, within this balance, Trump can do much damage in international politics because the President has a large mandate, especially in international politics.”
There is a different opinion, clearly from Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, who said in a video address on social media in March: “Donald Trump’s victory will benefit the whole world. During his previous presidency, there was no conflict in the Middle East and Ukraine.” The Hungarian leader noted that Trump deserved respect and created conditions for peace. “We agreed that there will be peace when leaders who want peace are found. It would be better if President Donald Trump returns.”
Buka Petriashvili: “How the next few months will unfold is very important. Due to Biden’s poorly conducted first debate, there was even talk that he might not continue the campaign, but he confirmed that he would fight till the end. Alternative candidates were even considered among the Democrats, including several well-known governors and senators, but the loudest name is Vice President Kamala Harris. An audio and video recording circulated, where Trump, on a golf course, said: ‘It is good for us that Biden is getting weaker from our blows, but Kamala Harris would be a catastrophe for our country. Imagine her negotiating with Putin, Xi Jinping…’ Trump said something like this to his entourage in a golf cart.”
Many political analysts believe that millions of Americans have already made their choice. However, many do not like either Biden or Trump, and they may vote for a third party or an independent candidate… or not go to the polls at all.
