Author: Robert Břešťan, HlídacíPes.org
As the war in Ukraine nears its end, European and Czech security agencies warn of a looming surge in illegal weapons flooding the black market. Meanwhile, the production of unregistered firearms is evolving, with artificial intelligence and 3D printing playing pivotal roles.
A Europol report from spring 2025 highlights the risk that Ukraine could soon become a major source of illegal firearms in Europe, both in the short and medium term.
While arms smuggling from Ukraine isn’t yet a significant issue, the situation could shift dramatically post-war. Historical precedent, particularly from the Yugoslav conflicts, suggests as much.
Michal Koudelka, director of the Czech Security Information Service (BIS), previously told Czech Radio that the intelligence community is intensely focused on this potential issue: “No matter how the war in Ukraine ends, weapons will be a problem. One of the most serious issues will be their smuggling worldwide.”
Threat to EU Internal Security
So far, BIS has recorded only isolated cases of illegal arms imports, and partner intelligence services across Europe have not yet confirmed widespread smuggling from Ukraine into the EU.
Still, security forces are bracing for a scenario where this could change rapidly. “We must refute claims that weapons supplied to Ukraine are already flooding back into Europe,” BIS spokesperson Ladislav Šticha told HlídacíPes.org.
“However, we must prepare for the reality that this will happen after the war ends. Our main concern is that Ukraine hosts highly sophisticated weapons and systems—anti-tank and anti-aircraft systems, to put it bluntly, capable of causing massive destruction.”
The BIS 2024 annual report echoes this: “In 2024, BIS had no information on organized crime figures engaging in illegal arms trade from Ukraine. However, post-conflict, illegal trade in weapons and military materials from Ukraine could emerge as a new risk phenomenon.”
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Europol has identified five main sources of illegal firearms in Europe:
*Conversion of weapons—gas, alarm, and signal weapons modified into functional firearms, both within and outside the EU.
*Weapons stockpiles—arms smuggled from depots near the EU, particularly from regions with historical conflicts.
*Private manufacturing—firearms assembled from components freely available without licenses in some EU and non-EU countries, often purchased online.
*3D printing—the production of weapons and components via 3D printing is intensifying due to easy access to printers and freely available designs online.
*Counterfeits—illegally manufactured weapons, likely at an industrial scale.
*Geopolitical instability in the Middle East could further fuel the international illegal arms trade.
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Security experts are increasingly alarmed by the rise in online trading of firearms, components, ammunition, and explosives—not just on the dark web but on mainstream platforms as well.
“Firearms and explosives trafficking poses a critical threat to EU internal security,” Europol’s report states. Unregistered firearms are linked to other serious and organized crimes, including drug trafficking, extortion, armed robberies, migrant smuggling, and street gang activities.
Sources of Illegal Arms
Technological advancements are a growing concern, according to Europol. Firearms can now be 3D-printed from metal, with artificial intelligence enhancing their quality and precision by optimizing designs.
AI also facilitates access to information on converting deactivated weapons and provides detailed instructions for homemade explosives. Other significant sources of illegal arms in the EU include counterfeit weapons produced at an industrial scale, the conversion of air, gas, signal, or Flobert-type weapons into live firearms, and organized thefts from non-EU stockpiles. Real-world cases underscore the severity.
In 2024, Polish police arrested a man transporting weapons kits purchased in Austria. He assembled firearms using components bought in Poland and sold them to criminal networks across the EU.
Authorities found dozens of illegally held weapons, key components, and over 20,000 rounds of ammunition buried in barrels underground. Europol noted these weapons were used by gangs for contract killings in Sweden.
In the Czech Republic, police charged a man from the Pilsen region with illegal arms trafficking after he mailed a submachine gun to a German workshop specializing in reactivating decommissioned weapons.
The suspect, a repeat offender, had been sentenced to four years in prison in 2020 for illegally selling hundreds of submachine guns—similar to those used by terrorists in the Paris attacks.
