2024 is a notable election year:
- The European Parliament elections have taken place.
- The Labour Party has returned to power in the UK.
- France had to hold extraordinary and crucial elections.
- The US is anticipating a presidential election.
Georgia is holding parliamentary elections on October 26, referred to as a sort of referendum.
Meanwhile, the Russia-Ukraine war continues, and its outcome will significantly influence the new world order, making it crucial who comes to power in leading European countries and the US.
We discuss these critical issues with Vano Chkhikvadze, manager of the Eurointegration Program at the Open Society Foundation, lecturer, and political analyst.
Interviewer: First, I want to touch on Bidzina Ivanishvili’s latest speech. He mentioned the European future and striving towards Europe, but considering international politics, the West and the US could be on better terms with China. Many do not support Donald Trump’s return. Ivanishvili mentioned both positively, thanking China and welcoming the return of the Republicans. Was this a coincidence, or should we perceive it as a specific message, given that these two vectors are not viewed sympathetically in the West?
Vano Chkhikvadze: It wasn’t a coincidence because it was a prepared speech. What was to be said was predetermined and deliberately disseminated. Simply put, it’s one thing that was said, and another is reality. The EU ambassador announced that the Eurointegration process is halted not long ago. Considering this reality, with no signs of change, Georgia can’t advance toward Eurointegration. If this is not reflected in actions, everything will stay the same. Georgian citizens know who and how will enter the EU. The EU makes the decision, and the main word belongs to Brussels, which includes 27 member countries. It has been repeatedly mentioned that Georgia will become an EU member in 2030. Setting dates is unrealistic. This process does not depend on us; the final word is with Brussels. I repeat that the messages said are one thing, and another is what American voters and Brussels bureaucrats will decide.
Interviewer: You mentioned deadlines, and Ivanishvili also said that the war would end by January or within a year and that approaches would change, including those towards us. Given the certainty he spoke, is this just a prediction, or is it based on something?
Vano Chkhikvadze: It’s hard to say what such a statement is based on. Likewise, what is his assessment of Georgia’s progress on the path of Eurointegration? It is essential when the war ends, but Ukraine must win unconditionally here. This is not a war that Ukraine is fighting only for itself; it is a war fought for all of Europe.
Interviewer: What kind of war is this? Is Russia trying to restore control over its “territory,” meaning the former Soviet space? Is this a war between Russia and the West on Ukrainian territory and not in, say, Afghanistan or somewhere else, or is this an unrecognized, unofficial Third World War that will bring a new order?
Vano Chkhikvadze: I think it is a war for the future, in the sense that how the scale will tilt and how it will end will determine the future world order. This will determine, among other things, NATO’s fate, Georgia’s fate, and the future of the European continent.
Interviewer: Let’s assume the war ends as we wish. We find ourselves under Europe’s umbrella. Will this be a security guarantee? Isn’t it possible that Russia will rise again after some time and rechallenge us since it doesn’t consider any agreements or documents?
Vano Chkhikvadze: It’s hard to say; after some time, we will see how much this changes Russia’s behavior. However, Ukraine’s victory will be the first instance in decades where Russia will be defeated. It will no longer have imperial ambitions, the feeling that those around it are its backyard. This will be a sign for a country to make its own development decisions.
Interviewer: Hypothetically speaking, could Georgia, with more support from Europe, then raise the issue that the Russian army should leave our territories?
Vano Chkhikvadze: Hypothetically, of course, it is possible. In Russia, a renewed idea and thought might begin to take care of its own country and not look outside and wage conquest wars. However, we do not feel this now when we see what is happening in the Kremlin, but theoretically and hypothetically, we can discuss it.
Interviewer: Let’s talk about elections. The European Parliament elections were held, and “Alternative for Germany” came second. France “survived” from the ultra-rights, and Trump’s chances of success are high. Where is Europe, the world, heading? What choice is it making?
Vano Chkhikvadze: A crisis moment often comes when the European demos unite and make some decisions. It is precisely the crisis period within the EU. However, despite the growing popularity of the ultra-right, in the end, they will not be able to shape and be the determinant of the future policy of the EU. An example is Ursula von der Leyen’s speech, where she emphasized that the EU’s significant tool is enlargement and intends to continue this course. I remain optimistic that the enlargement policy will continue on its path.
Interviewer: Even based on the enlargement policy, where can the sanctions be limited? For example, in the 90s, they might have acted harshly and closed the country. Now, it is more complicated to revoke visa-free travel with a single move, not to recognize us, not to look at the map. Where can the limit be if Europe sees that the country is not moving in the desired direction?
Vano Chkhikvadze: Everyone, inside and outside the country, is waiting for October 26. It is a kind of referendum on whether Georgia will continue its path toward the EU or remain in this state. Everyone is watching this. The path we choose is in the hands of Georgian citizens. Only after this will there be a reaction. Regarding the candidate status, we know that it was based on the will of the Georgian people; it was granted to the Georgian population. Citizens must justify this advance, that the October choice will facilitate the path to Eurointegration.
Interviewer: Let’s assume the current government remains. If it makes some changes, will Europe move towards cooperation?
Vano Chkhikvadze: This word “some” allows for broad interpretation. Our progress depends on how well the nine steps are implemented. Now, we see not only progress but regression as well. For example, as EU representatives have stated, the introduction of the “Russian law” contradicts at least three points. Consequently, such progress is unimaginable. For example, conducting an integrity check in the judicial system is unimaginable, which the “Georgian Dream” has stated they do not intend to do. According to the enlargement report, for example, there is a demand to fight elite corruption… I will return to where I started: one thing is what the Georgian government and the EU say. Europe must say that without fulfilling the nine steps, striving for Eurointegration is impossible. Plus, under the conditions of the “Russian law,” there is no chance for us to move forward. No country within the EU or aspiring to be an EU member has adopted the “Russian law” and entered the EU. Such a precedent does not exist. So, it is up to us to decide what we will do.
