New contours are emerging on the global geopolitical stage. Major changes, of course, are not expected, as Russia and the West will at the very least remain in a Cold War situation. However, the two opposing sides have had one unresolved issue for quite some time – the war in Ukraine.
The war in Ukraine is not only about military actions. It is also an indicator of influence, a demonstration of strength, and, if you will, a marker of image. Therefore, neither side can obviously concede through outright compromise: the war must end in such a way that both sides can claim victory.
Will Russia and the U.S. be able to negotiate? What position and involvement will Europe have? And how will events develop afterward?
At present, naturally, no one can give a precise answer to this, although the overwhelming majority of experts and analysts agree that the chances of reaching an agreement have increased after U.S. Special Representative Steve Witkoff visited Russia for the fifth time. It is said that the results of this meeting will determine the next steps the U.S. will take – Trump had earlier threatened to impose import tariffs on Russia and its trade partners if hostilities did not cease.
Overall, Witkoff’s nearly three-hour meeting with the Russian president was evaluated positively. Russia’s special representative, Kirill Dmitriev, spoke of “progress and positive trends,” and Trump described the talks as “very good,” although he did not consider them a breakthrough. The White House also announced that Trump is “open to meeting” with Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Moreover, according to a CNN source, Trump’s aides immediately began planning these meetings.
“My special representative, Steve Witkoff, had a very productive meeting with the President of Russia. Significant progress was made. After the meeting, I updated our European allies. Everyone agrees that this war must end, and we will work on that,” the U.S. president wrote on social media.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio stated that, for the first time since Trump’s inauguration, there is specificity regarding what Russia might demand to end the war. He did not provide details, but said that territorial issues would be the decisive factor in ending the war.
Territories: Same as Everywhere Else?
Will the familiar picture be repeated?
We know of many examples (including in Georgia) where seized territories de facto are no longer under the control of the countries they belong to, while the international community neither recognizes them as independent nor as part of the occupying state.
Many experts predict the same will happen in Ukraine’s case.
Polish media is publishing the proposals that the U.S. president will present to the Russian president to end the war.
According to Onet, Moscow will receive fairly favorable proposals. The source claims that this proposal has also been agreed upon with European leaders.
Here is what it includes: a temporary truce in Ukraine, not a peace agreement; postponement of the issue of Russian-occupied Ukrainian territories for 49 or 99 years; lifting most sanctions imposed on Russia and, in the long term, restoring cooperation with Moscow in the energy sector.
At the same time, the package does not include guarantees that NATO will not expand in the future, which for Moscow is a red line and a starting point. Nor will Russia be promised that military support to Ukraine will cease.
Bloomberg also writes about the territorial issue.
Donald Trump believes that Putin might begin negotiations in exchange for discussing the issue of a territorial swap.
Russian presidential aide Yuri Ushakov stated that Russia received a fairly acceptable proposal from the Americans.
Will Russia Make Concessions?
After the meeting between Putin and Witkoff, Yuri Ushakov stated that “certain signals were sent” from the Russian side and that “corresponding signals were also received from President Trump.”
When asked by a journalist whether the Russian president had made concessions during the meeting with Steve Witkoff that he had not been ready to make before, Donald Trump replied that he would not call this meeting a breakthrough.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio says that for the first time they have concrete examples of what demands Russia might have to end the war. Rubio stated this on Fox News.
“I think what we have is a better understanding of the conditions under which Russia will end the war. Now we must compare this to what the Ukrainians and our European allies will be ready to agree to. If we can accept what the Ukrainians and Russians agree on, then I think there is a possibility for the president to meet with both Putin and Zelensky to try to bring this to an end,” Rubio said.
Former CIA analyst Larry Johnson spoke on retired U.S. Army Colonel Daniel Davis’s YouTube channel:
“Russia is not trying to provoke a confrontation with the United States. They are maintaining calm and politeness. During the meeting, Putin probably explained to Witkoff how things stand. He likely once again politely reminded him that Russia needs to see serious steps from the United States, because it is Putin who is at the helm of the conflict in Ukraine, despite statements that Russia is experiencing problems,” he said.
Who Won the War: Russia Can Achieve No More
Fortuna spoke to political scientist and expert Kakha Gogolashvili, director of the European Studies Center at the Georgian Foundation for Strategic and International Studies:
Achieving a result is now more realistic. Russia has exhausted its capabilities. It can achieve no more in Ukraine. Therefore, it is possible that Putin will issue an order to cease fire.
Does this mean the war will end? It is not impossible that after some time Russia might start new provocations. Incidentally, in such a case China’s position will be important.
At the same time, it is necessary to continue supplying Ukraine, and it would be desirable to deploy a NATO contingent. Russia has no way out, and for this reason it might agree.
Will Putin Concede?
He will not give up territories. They will remain unrecognized. Russia will remain the de facto ruler. It is inconceivable that he would relinquish already seized territories without military defeat. There will be no deal over territories. The ceasefire will occur where the front line currently lies. Europe needs time to strengthen. At this stage, it does not have the capability to repel aggression even in the Baltic states or in Poland.
If Russia does not collapse, over time it will begin aggression in other directions, possibly in Central Asia. China and Turkey will resist, but Russia’s aggressive aims will not subside.
If this happens as you say, who will be considered the winner of the war?
Putin will say, “I won.” Let’s recall the 1939–1940 Russo-Finnish War, in which Finland was victorious, yet lost 20% of its territory. It depends on what one considers victory. At the time, for Finland, the main goal was preserving independence, and it succeeded. The same situation applies to Ukraine. Russia needed to subjugate Ukraine in the context of preserving the empire. Therefore, this cannot be considered Russia’s success.
In a ceasefire scenario, will Russians be reintegrated into the international community – culture, sports, even allowing Russian football teams back into European tournaments?
It is possible that attitudes will soften and approaches change, but Russia will remain an occupier. Exactly what situation will emerge is difficult to predict. It will depend on further diplomacy. A model must be developed – a modus vivendi (conditions that allow two opposing sides to coexist in a normal, peaceful way, at least temporarily – ed.).
If an agreement is reached, what will happen in Georgia’s case or in the Caucasus in general? Could it happen that there will be some kind of trade-off about us, and the West will interfere less in Russia’s Caucasian interests?
Europe will not turn its back on a candidate country. Trump’s America might say, “It’s your business, just don’t start a war.” Russia might use so-called soft power.
Regarding Azerbaijan and Armenia, Russia is finished there. Azerbaijan has Turkey as its defender. Georgia has turned its back on the West, cooled relations, and is a relatively easy target for Russia.
Turkey has taken on the defense of Armenia. In the past, it tried to pressure it, but now it is the opposite – Turkey badly needs the Zangezur Corridor.
Georgia could have moved forward quickly; now the discussion is about the level of protection. The question is how much more Europe will want to defend against Russia. Otherwise, it’s not a matter of “do whatever you want, take Georgia.” That will not happen. The issue now is the degree of protection from Europe. If we were more loyal to Europe, it would be impossible for Russia to pressure Georgia.
Last Chance of the Last Chance: What the Press Writes
CNN
“Trump’s intense frustration with Putin evaporated after his envoy left a three-hour meeting with the Kremlin leader. Ukraine fears Trump will revert to a pro-Russian peace plan that meets Moscow’s demands to keep all territory it currently holds in Ukraine and permanently rule out Kyiv’s NATO membership.”
The Guardian
“The prospect of Putin and Trump reaching an agreement on Ukraine without other parties will likely alarm Kyiv and European capitals. Zelensky avoided criticizing Trump but said he would consult with European allies.”
Neue Zürcher Zeitung
“Shortly before the deadline for the American ultimatum to Russia over a ceasefire in Ukraine expired, the sides unexpectedly drew closer. Witkoff’s visit to Moscow was considered a ‘last chance meeting.’ Trump threatened severe sanctions in case of refusal. It is still unclear what result this threat will bring, but Trump’s willingness for dialogue suggests he may give Putin yet another ‘last chance.’”
