Nuclear Europe: What is the future of Western nuclear energy, and what role does geopolitics play?

Amazon, Google, and Meta are just a few companies advocating for increased nuclear energy production. At a recent conference, tech giants agreed to support the expansion of global nuclear energy by 2050. 31 countries and 140 companies in the nuclear industry have signed a commitment to triple nuclear energy capabilities by 2050. According to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), approximately 9% of the world’s electricity is generated from nuclear energy. Over the last five years, uranium prices have increased due to geopolitical tensions and forecasts of rising demand. One factor is Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and subsequent sanctions imposed on Moscow.

In response to this dependency on Moscow, former U.S. President Joe Biden introduced a law last year banning uranium imports from Russia. Certain supplies were allowed to continue until the end of 2027, after which Russia took retaliatory measures, temporarily banning uranium exports to the USA.

Experts say that power station operators and fuel suppliers are hesitant to commit. Nuclear energy producers are reluctant to sign long-term supply contracts without assurances of uranium processing plants being built. On the other hand, processors do not want to expand unless they have agreements with buyers.

Natural Uranium Supply 

The leading suppliers of natural uranium to the United States are Canada, Australia, and Kazakhstan. According to Euratom data, in 2023, the leading suppliers of natural uranium to the European Union were Canada (32.94%), Russia (23.45%), and Kazakhstan (21%), with 0% domestic supply.

What is the future of nuclear energy in the European Union? 

Nuclear energy is an essential source of electricity in the European Union. According to Eurostat, it is produced in 12 EU countries and accounts for about a fifth of the generated electricity. After Germany closed its nuclear power stations in 2023, France (with 57 reactors) became the EU’s largest electricity producer from nuclear energy – 55%. The World Nuclear Association recently warned that there would not be enough existing reactors in the future to produce the amount of electricity generated by the closed reactors. Currently, only two new reactors are under construction in the EU, one in France and one in Slovakia. An additional twelve reactors are planned to be built in the Union countries, which is still less than Russia, which plans to build 14 new reactors, six already under construction.

Europe is divided: who is in favor and who is against? Due to the energy crisis triggered by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron’s plan for energy independence includes building new reactors. He argues that modernization is essential to achieve this goal. However, the push for a nuclear revival has caused disagreements with other European countries, especially Germany. Some EU member states fully support atomic energy, while others are opposed due to potential safety issues. This remains a long discussion without a clear answer. Why does nuclear energy cause such differing opinions in Europe?

How much energy does nuclear power provide to Europe? Approximately a quarter of the EU’s energy is generated by nuclear power stations, with more than half of that share coming from France. Out of 27 EU member countries, 13 have 103 reactors. There is a broad spectrum of opinions in the EU regarding the use of nuclear energy and safety issues, making it a hot topic for debate. Each EU country makes its own decision on whether to include nuclear power stations in its energy balance.

Who is against nuclear energy? 

Public opinion about nuclear energy significantly changed following the accident at Three Mile Island in 1979 and the Chernobyl catastrophe in 1986. In 2002, the center-left government in Germany passed a law to stop the construction of new nuclear power stations, and all existing reactors were to be shut down. This became part of the shift towards wind and solar energy. In 2010, Angela Merkel announced that the service life of Germany’s nuclear power stations would be extended. Just a year later, the nuclear incident at Fukushima 1 in Japan sparked serious debates once again. For months, massive protests were held nationwide, leading Merkel’s government to announce that all nuclear power stations would be closed by 2022.

Which countries are in favor? 

France has long been a European leader in the nuclear energy sector. Since the 1980s, nuclear power stations have been the dominant electricity producers in the country. In February of the current year, it became one of 11 countries that allied to support nuclear energy in Europe. Leaders signed a declaration stating that atomic energy is one of the instruments to achieve climate goals. In addition to France, the group includes Bulgaria, Croatia, Finland, the Czech Republic, Hungary, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia. The alliance aims to facilitate research, innovation, and “common safety standards” and discuss how collaboration can lead to more reactor construction. The Italian government is also considering signing the declaration.

What is the situation worldwide? 

Over the last decade, interest in nuclear energy has significantly increased. Currently, 440 active nuclear reactors are in 32 countries worldwide, generating 10% of the world’s electricity. Atomic energy is popular in many developed and developing countries, especially Europe. For example, nuclear energy accounted for an impressive 64.8% of the total electricity production in France in 2023. Significant shares are also seen in Slovakia – 61.3%, Hungary – 48.8%, Finland – 42%, Belgium – 41.2%, Bulgaria – 40.4%, and the Czech Republic – 40%. At the same time, in “green” countries like Switzerland and Sweden, the share of nuclear energy is 32.4% and 28.6%, respectively. In “oil and gas” countries like the United Arab Emirates and the USA, this indicator is also relatively high – 19.7% and 18.6% respectively.

The top 5 countries by the number of active nuclear reactors are:

  • USA – 94 reactors;
  • China – 56 reactors;
  • France – 56 reactors;
  • Russia – 36 reactors;
  • Japan – 33 reactors.

The construction of 59 nuclear reactors is underway worldwide as of the current year. China leads with 25 blocks, followed by India with seven reactors. Turkey, Egypt, and Russia are building four reactors each. Notably, the average age of over 260 active nuclear reactors worldwide exceeds 30 years, and some reactors will soon be retired. However, some countries have extended licenses to prolong the operational life of existing stations. The annual number of decommissioned nuclear reactors persists. In total, from 2019 to 2023, 39 reactors were shut down. In addition, the reason for shutting down nuclear reactors may also be the domestic politics of countries. So, while some countries are moving away from nuclear energy, others are trying as much as possible to develop it actively, emphasizing its importance for long-term energy security. Despite opposing views and technical challenges, nuclear energy remains a significant element of the global energy strategy.

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