Author: Robert Břešťan, HlídacíPes.org
When the UN General Assembly voted in March 2022 to condemn the Kremlin’s aggressive war in Ukraine, 17 African nations abstained. For years, the Kremlin has been methodically working to ensure African countries side with it, while condemning the “neocolonial and corrupt West.” This is highlighted in a recently published study by NATO’s Strategic Communications Centre of Excellence, which examines Russian information operations “outside the Western information environment.”
The Kremlin draws on methods and experiences from the Soviet era, specifically the so-called “theory of reflexive control.” The approach mirrors what we see in European contexts:
“Information manipulation and public opinion shaping are tailored to the cultural, emotional, and social environment, psychologically customized to specific countries through propaganda, so-called maskirovka—deception and provocation via the spread of hoaxes and false narratives. The goal is to trigger a desired, ‘voluntary’ reflexive response,” the NATO study notes.
In Africa, however, the Kremlin portrays itself as an anti-imperialist power, while depicting NATO countries as neocolonial states with untrustworthy and decadent societies.
Russia’s Version of the Story
Nigerian journalist Philip Obaji, in an interview with Czech website Voxpot, described how Russia fuels destabilization in West Africa and migration to Europe, amplifies anti-Western sentiment through massive propaganda, and how Russian mercenaries—remnants and successors of the former Wagner Group—rape, steal, and kill across the continent.
“Russia, especially in Francophone Africa, promotes the narrative that France was nothing but evil. That Paris destroyed countries like Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, while the Kremlin arrives as an equal economic partner. Decades of instability and European military presence, particularly in the Sahel, have led people to see no benefits in cooperating with the West—instead, they believe these countries are unstable because Europe and the US want it that way,” Obaji told Voxpot
According to him, Russia also aims to encourage and amplify African migration to Europe: “The goal is to destabilize West Africa and the Sahel, which is part of the Kremlin’s broader fight against the European Union. Disinformation is central to this, and European states need to counter it more effectively. We know Russia is trying to pit different ethnic groups against each other.”
Even in Africa (and to some extent in the Arab world), Russia has exploited themes tied to the war against Ukraine—for instance, the war’s impact on food and energy security and rising living costs resonated strongly across the continent.
Public opinion on the conflict’s causes varies, as revealed by the study’s analyses and interviews. Even in countries like Kenya and South Africa, where most people condemn Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, a portion of the population buys into the Kremlin’s narrative that the war stems from
“NATO expansion driven by the US.”
As a result, many Africans blamed the West—not Russia—for the food and energy crises, aligning with the Kremlin’s claim that the “Black Sea Grain Initiative is a ruse designed to give Western states an advantage over others.”
Colonialism and Social Fault Lines
NATO’s study examines Russian information influence operations in five countries: Egypt, Mali, Kenya, South Africa, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
The Kremlin effectively exploits local discontent—whether it’s resentment of neocolonialism in Mali, distrust of institutions in Kenya, or historical grievances in South Africa—always to undermine the West. Much like in Europe, the Kremlin adeptly identifies “social fault lines” to divide societies and shape a worldview that suits modern Russia’s interests.
Of the five countries studied, Mali is the most problematic—despite over a decade of EU and UN training missions aimed at supporting the government and Malian army in combating various insurgent and Islamist groups. Czech soldiers have repeatedly participated in these missions.
The UAE and South Africa remain largely neutral, though leaning toward Russia. Egypt and Kenya “waver,” but the Kremlin capitalizes on growing apathy to foster distrust of the West. This is reflected, for example, in these countries’ uncertain voting patterns in international bodies and their responses to current and future crises.
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Russian Influence in Selected Non-European Countries
Egypt
Digital analysis shows pro-Kremlin content in Arabic outpacing pro-Western content in both volume and persuasiveness. Qualitative data reveal growing distrust of the West, which the Kremlin exploits to spread conspiracy theories and “whataboutism.” Still, Egypt is unlikely to sever ties with the West due to its dependence on US aid and Ukrainian grain. However, it may lean toward “positive neutrality” in the Ukraine conflict, partly due to Russia’s role in food security. The Kremlin’s goal is to foster apathy toward the war, a desire for a quick resolution, and skepticism of objective truth.
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Mali
Mali is becoming a stronghold of Russian influence in Africa. Analysis reveals strong anti-Western sentiment aligned with pro-Kremlin attitudes, rooted in disillusionment with Western models, perceptions of neocolonialism, and distrust of Western security approaches. Cooperation with the Kremlin is seen as anti-colonial liberation, reflected in the dominance of pro-Kremlin content on social media and in closed groups. The Kremlin strengthens its influence here while deepening distrust of the West.
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Kenya
Anti-Western sentiment is also rising here, though pro-Kremlin content has limited reach so far. China plays a role in spreading anti-Western narratives. The Kremlin aims to create apathy toward events in Ukraine, distrust of Western institutions, and polarization in debates about values.
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South Africa
Free media in South Africa curb Russian dominance, though press freedom faces challenges. Evidence of direct Russian influence is weak, but local currents tie Russian narratives to political agendas and Russia’s historical role in the anti-apartheid struggle. Pro-Russian sentiment is widespread among elites. Western communication struggles against historical grievances, bolstering the Kremlin’s narrative of a new “multilateral” order. The Kremlin seeks positive neutrality and polarization in debates about the West.
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United Arab Emirates
Cooperation with the Kremlin is seen as mutually beneficial in the UAE. The Kremlin exploits perceptions of Western hypocrisy, resistance to LGBTQ+ issues associated with the West, and conspiratorial thinking to weaken the West and foster apathy toward its norm violations. The Kremlin aims to strengthen ties with Russia and amplify conspiracies on Arabic social media.
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Pro-Kremlin content dominated all open social platforms, with the study noting that the X platform (formerly Twitter) leads the pack: “Based on secondary research, this is likely due to Elon Musk’s takeover of the platform and the subsequent weakening of its monitoring and protective capabilities.”
The popularity of official Russian embassy channels and Kremlin-backed outlets like RT (Russia Today) and Sputnik has surged on social media in African countries by tens of percent in recent years. The study couldn’t cover closed content on widely used discussion groups on Telegram, Facebook, and WhatsApp, which it describes as “key to dissemination and indoctrination by insulating communities from competing views.”
Double Strike: Top-Down and Bottom-Up
The actors involved are not much different from those in the Czech Republic: alongside conspiratorial or Kremlin-funded websites (like RT and Sputnik, now banned in Europe due to sanctions), there are local officials, useful idiots, cynics, and fake accounts.
Notably, in the five countries studied, the Kremlin’s main target groups are political elites and youth: “The aim is to create dual influence—top-down and bottom-up. This has a secondary effect on shaping both current and future discussions about Russia, the West, and the international system, as well as current and future policy-making.”
This “double strike”—top-down through elites and bottom-up through youth—has the potential to reshape discourse about Russia and the West for decades to come.
Unlike Russia, the West has yet to overcome language barriers, communicate with audiences at a hyper-local level, or counter the space given to anti-Western and pro-Kremlin content.
The West’s reputation isn’t helped by moves from the current administration of US President Donald Trump. Among other things, it plans to end US funding for Gavi, an organization that helps purchase critical vaccines for children in developing countries, such as those for malaria.
According to The New York Times, countries like Sierra Leone depend on Gavi for vaccine procurement. Sierra Leone’s Health Minister, Austin Demby, has already responded, saying he is “shocked and concerned” and that the consequences could be felt worldwide.
