2025 has just started, with only two weeks gone by, but in global politics, a significant figure who hasn’t officially taken office has made announcements that surprised everyone. The New Year celebrations in Georgia are usually prolonged, but the situation is different as the protests continue. In short, 2025 has taken over the baton from 2024.
The elections of 2025, which will define Europe’s future 2025, could be a year of significant political changes. In Germany, there are federal elections, presidential elections are scheduled in Romania, and a referendum is held in Poland. The list goes on. 2024 was also an election year, marked by Donald Trump’s return as President of the USA, a strengthening of right-wing parties in the EU elections, political shifts in Great Britain from the Conservatives to the Labour, and Narendra Modi’s re-election as India’s Prime Minister. The list of planned elections this year is impressive, and, importantly, the potential results are crucial. It could be said that Europe is undergoing a test, deciding which course to take. On the scales – ultranationalism, Russian influences, and maintaining the existing system.
Germany: Return to the European arena?
After the Bundestag declared no confidence in Chancellor Olaf Scholz in December, snap parliamentary elections were scheduled for February 23, 2025. On December 20, during the peak of the election campaign, an attack occurred at the Magdeburg Christmas market. The main suspect is a doctor who fled from Saudi Arabia. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser said that the attacker held Islamophobic views. The incident intensified anti-immigrant sentiments, particularly in the eastern regions of Germany.
According to the latest INSA survey, the far-right party “Alternative for Germany” (AfD) holds about 20.5% of the votes. Friedrich Merz, the leader of the Christian Democratic Union, is the clear favorite for the chancellor position.
Merz, whose career started during Helmut Kohl’s time, supports a more integrated Europe. He criticizes Europe’s heavy dependence on the United States and calls for supplying Taurus [missiles] to Ukraine.
Romania: Presidential Race with Foreign Interference
The presidential struggle with external interference will cause Romanian citizens to go to the polls again in 2025 after the Constitutional Court annuls the results of the first round of presidential elections. The judges explained their decision with possible interference from abroad in the elections. The second round saw a centrist, pro-European candidate, Elena Lasconi, and an ultranationalist, pro-Russian candidate, Kalin Georgiescu. The latter’s unexpected success is largely attributed to his strong social network popularity and TikTok support campaign. Romanian intelligence speaks of the Kremlin’s influence.
Poland: Tusk’s Test
Analysts view Poland’s presidential election in May as a referendum on the confidence in Donald Tusk’s government, which has governed since December 2023 and includes various parties. The favorites in the presidential race are Rafal Trzaskowski, the Mayor of Warsaw from the Civic Platform, and the independent historian Karol Nawrocki.
Italy: Stability of Meloni’s Government
In September, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni will face a significant test as local elections are held in six Italian regions. These elections will indicate whether Italians are satisfied with the government’s performance. In the last regional elections in November, center-right candidates were defeated by left-wing candidates in Emilia-Romagna and Umbria, which was undoubtedly disappointing for Meloni.
Czech Republic: “Axis of Euroscepticism”
Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic are due in October. According to the latest polls, populist Andrej Babiš is leading with 34.5% of the vote, significantly higher than the 13.7% garnered by conservative Prime Minister Petr Fiala. A victory for Babiš would strengthen Central Europe’s “far-right axis,” including Hungary’s Viktor Orbán and Slovakia’s Robert Fico. Often referred to as the “Czech Trump,” the former billionaire supports a stricter migration policy, opposes further integration of the country into the European Union, and is perceived as highly favorable towards Russia.
Croatia: A “Nationalist” Perspective
Croats have already elected their president. Zoran Milanović secured a second term, winning by a landslide in the second round. Milanović describes himself as a “nationalist” and has expressed opposition to aid to Ukraine and the involvement of Croatian soldiers in NATO’s mission to train Ukrainian forces. Often compared to Donald Trump for his confrontational style with opponents, Milanović is a vocal critic of Prime Minister Andrej Plenković and his administration. Despite the presidency’s limited powers, many in Croatia view the role as crucial for maintaining a balance in the political landscape.
United Kingdom: How Long Will They Support Labour?
On May 1, the UK will hold county council elections in England. These elections are a significant test for the Labour Party, which recently returned to power. Polls indicate historically low support levels for both Labour and the Conservatives.
Norway: Risk of a Rightward Shift?
Norway’s parliamentary elections will be held on September 8. The results will determine the composition of the 169-seat Storting and likely prime ministerial candidates. Recent polls indicate a trend toward right-wing parties gaining strength.
Ireland: Who Will Replace the “Long-Time Politician”?
In November, Irish voters will elect a new president to succeed Michael Higgins, who has held the office for 14 years. While the president’s role in Ireland is largely ceremonial, it carries important constitutional responsibilities such as signing bills into law and representing Ireland internationally. As of now, no candidates have officially announced their candidacy.
Belarus: No Alternative
An election is scheduled for January 26, but experts anticipate little change. President Lukashenko has warned that he will cut off Belarusian internet access if protests like those in 2020 erupt during or after the vote.
Russia: No Comment
Russia will hold by-elections for the State Duma and various local elections in September. However, given the lack of transparency, suppression of alternative information, and elimination of opposition, few believe these elections are in any way credible.
Moldova: Pro-Europeans Under Pressure from Pro-Russians
Moldova is grappling with Russian interference. In the recent referendum on EU membership, the pro-European faction won by a narrow margin of just 50.35%. Pro-European President Maia Sandu was elected in the second round. The ruling party, PAS, is gearing up for the 2025 parliamentary elections. Should it fail to secure a majority, it will face intense confrontations with other political forces that do not support EU integration. For President Sandu, these elections represent a crucial “last battle” for Moldova’s European path in a country where pro-Russian opposition remains strong.
Georgia: What Will the Local Elections Prove?
Georgia will conduct local elections in October. The government’s decision to postpone the country’s EU accession talks until 2028 has triggered mass protests in Tbilisi and other cities nationwide.
Trump Can and Trump Can’t Several different writers at The Economist have presented their views on how events will unfold in the United States and globally during the first year of Trump’s presidency. In an article titled “Where Donald Trump Can—and Where He Can’t,” the magazine’s U.S. editor, John Prideaux, suggests that the judicial system and laws will prevent Trump from fulfilling all of his campaign promises. He also mentions that Trump will likely eliminate incentives for electric cars, revamp the economy, and introduce a 20% tariff on imports, though such actions would require congressional approval. However, Prideaux believes Trump will be unable to mass-deport illegal immigrants from the United States.
Migration In “The Future of Immigration,” Robert Guest, deputy editor at The Economist, predicts that many wealthy countries will tighten immigration regulations. The strictest measures are expected in the United States, where Trump has promised to reduce mass immigration significantly. In an article titled “Migration Pressures Rise – But So Does Resistance,” Kinley Salmon, the magazine’s Latin America correspondent, notes that economic factors continue to drive many Latin Americans to emigrate.
Additional Global Forecasts for 2025:
The British edition of The Economist has released a special issue titled “World Ahead 2025,” offering a forecast for the upcoming year. The publication’s experts anticipate a decrease in central bank rates across developed nations, ongoing trade wars between China and the United States, and a transformation of Chinese companies to align with Western standards. Additionally, a slowdown in tourism activities is expected, among other developments.
Global Demographics and Economy Approximately 12% of the global population will be over 65, yet global healthcare spending is projected to stabilize at 10% of GDP.
Environmental Initiatives and Energy Consumption Governments will enhance their support for various environmental initiatives, which is expected to significantly increase energy consumption from renewable sources.
Transportation and Travel Electric vehicle sales are set to rise by a quarter worldwide. However, their inability to travel long distances without recharging is anticipated to deter some potential buyers. Concurrently, airlines globally will commit to cutting carbon emissions and will invest in new aircraft. This is expected to boost the number of global tourists to 1.6 billion.
Real Estate Markets The global real estate markets will experience volatility. While housing prices are expected to remain high globally, a notable decline is forecasted in China.
Green energy initiatives require significant infrastructural investments, such as batteries and cables for electric vehicles. Everything will become more expensive—from copper to steel.
The analytical company EIU has also issued individual forecasts for specific sectors.
Under normal global economic conditions, EIU analysts expect a 2.5% growth in the global economy.
Automobile market. Automobile sales will increase by only 2%, but electric vehicles will sell faster.
Energy. Global energy consumption will increase by 2%.
Food prices. The majority of food product prices will decrease due to increased supply. However, global consumers will still spend 6% more on luxury food products compared to 2024.
Retail. Global retail sales will increase by 2%.
Telecommunications. The 5G subscribers will increase by 25% and reach 2.8 billion.
Artificial Intelligence: Threat or Development
Human attention is intensely focused on artificial intelligence, which seems poised to both make significant advances and expand its boundaries. Billionaire Elon Musk claims that by 2025, artificial intelligence will surpass any human in intelligence. He further speculates that by 2030, AI will surpass the collective intelligence of all humanity.
Sam Altman, the CEO of OpenAI, echoes a similar sentiment. He believes that by 2025, a new general-purpose AI capable of performing various cognitive tasks at a human level will emerge.
Renowned futurologist and historian Yuval Noah Harari observes that by 2025, artificial intelligence will be actively integrated into various social structures, eventually becoming an essential component. Harari also predicts that by 2025, AI will be capable of significantly influencing humanity, with neural networks increasingly generating fake news, thereby distorting reality perception. Artificial intelligence will specialize in creating digital illusions.
However, there are also predictions that provoke cautious optimism. New technologies, including highly advanced artificial intelligence, are expected to aid in developing new medications, enhance climate models, and further space exploration.
What Artificial Intelligence Said to Fortuna About Georgia
Not to be left behind in discussions of artificial intelligence, we at Fortuna also consulted ChatGPT for its forecast regarding Georgia for 2025. Here’s what it had to say:
Drawing from current data and the political, economic, and social events up until the end of 2024, the forecast for Georgia might include these principal points:
Continued political polarization Internal conflicts: The disagreement between the ruling party and the opposition will likely persist. If the protest continues, confrontations may intensify in 2025.
Geopolitical pressure Challenges of integration into the European Union: Despite the strong desire to join the EU, internal instability and recognition of regression in democratic reforms might slow down the process. EU leaders may demand more concrete reforms and commitments. Russian influence: Russia’s destabilization tactics, both politically and economically, could intensify if Georgia moves closer to the EU or NATO. Moscow might employ hybrid warfare techniques, including disinformation and puppet groups, to undermine Georgia’s sovereignty.
Economic uncertainty Trade and infrastructure: Since the leading global trade routes pass through the region, Georgia’s economic prospects could improve if the government capitalizes on these opportunities. However, political instability and a lack of investments might hinder the country from gaining significant benefits.
Social Movements and Civic Engagement The protest wave on Rustaveli Avenue at the end of 2024 indicates civic awareness and engagement. This impulse may support greater government accountability. However, prolonged protests without precise results may lead to exhaustion or disillusionment, eroding public trust in political leaders.
Security issues Border instability: The risk of local conflicts remains with separatist regions such as Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Russia’s military presence in these regions could escalate tensions if the geopolitical situation worsens. Domestic security: Rising nationalism and polarized political rhetoric could exacerbate ethnic and social divisions, creating additional challenges for internal security.
Forecast Georgia in 2025 is ready to remain at a crossroads. Its strategic location and growing civic activism represent opportunities for progress, but this largely depends on political compromise and international support. The country faces stagnation or regression without significant reforms and reduced internal polarization. Conversely, if the government and opposition find a way to collaborate, 2025 could be stable and a starting point for revitalization for Georgia.
How we travel in 2025: Influencers have been trying to talk about solo travel for years. But in 2025, many (as in 2024) will be disenchanted with traveling alone. People need people. In the new year, travelers will value connections more than ever. People will be attracted to travel experiences where they can truly relax—away from chaos, hectic rhythms, and routines. Moreover, the so-called “soft travel” will not have any universal format; each will need its own approach. Stepping away from social networks and completely turning off the internet is an overly radical solution, but it sounds like a perfect plan during vacations. A recent global survey conducted by the online ticket service Opodo found that about 30% of travelers already prefer offline experiences during travel. This number is expected to grow.
Summer vacations in the Nordic countries are becoming the new norm. Scandinavia and the Baltic countries—Iceland, Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—actively offer themselves to escape the heat.
Here, too, ChatGPT.
People plan their travels using artificial intelligence, choosing destinations, hotels, restaurants, and entertainment, making reservations through its means, and awaiting what else artificial intelligence offers. There are excellent prospects on the horizon. Thanks to artificial intelligence, travel may soon become very personalized and unique. Travels will be selected and tailored according to an individual’s specific desires. However, there is no guarantee that artificial intelligence can create reliable routes and make better choices than humans.
Conclusion These forecasts remind us that the world is changing faster than it appears. They are not precise predictions, but they provide a basis for thinking about the future and what awaits us. By 2025, we may witness events that seemed impossible yesterday.”
