Author: Lucie Sýkorová, HlidaciPes.org
One of the goals of Russian influence operations is to support far-right parties in Western Europe. It sees this as a hope that these parties will oppose aid to Ukraine and sanctions against Russia. This is according to an analysis of thousands of files leaked from the servers of the Russian agency SDA (Social Design Agency), which was allegedly hired by Russian President Putin’s office. The leaked documents were analyzed by a group of investigative journalists led by the Estonian website Delfi Estonia.
The documents reveal the exact strategy that the SDA agency proposed for manipulating public opinion and influencing elections, primarily in Europe and the US. It proposes the wording of fake comments on social networks, what videos, infographics, and photos should be produced and published, and how often.
At the turn of the year, a consortium of investigative media outlets led by Delfi Estonia published a series of articles as part of the “The Kremlin Leaks” project, which largely reveals Russia’s strategy and billion-dollar budget for domestic propaganda. This year, the project was shortlisted for the Daphne Caruana Galizia Award, which is presented annually in October on the anniversary of the murder of the Maltese investigative journalist whose name the award bears.
“Our editorial team has extensive experience with this type of work. In particular, our colleague Holger Roonemaa has worked for many years on issues of national and international security and Russian influence and interference, especially in the Baltic states, Belarus, and Moldova,” Marta Vunšová, a journalist from the Estonian website Delfi who also participated in The Kremlin Leaks project, told HlídacíPes.org.
Although Estonia borders Russia, the journalist feels safe in her country.
“We are a free country and the vast majority of us in the Baltics are immune to Russian propaganda. If anything happens here, it’s only minor acts of sabotage. For example, someone threw a Molotov cocktail into the Latvian Museum of Occupation in February this year. Or personal cars are damaged, as happened to our interior minister or my colleague from the editorial office. Russia usually hires local people for these actions, but it is almost impossible to recruit someone through pro-Russian ideology; that doesn’t work here. The only way is to find people who will carry out such actions because they can be paid to do so.”
However, she is pessimistic about the possibility of stopping the influence of manipulative operations in other countries and in Russia itself. “The system is based on the regime’s experience from the Soviet era, it is very sophisticated and has a huge budget. It can buy or otherwise absorb practically anyone,” she noted.
“Nevertheless, I think it is very important to map and publish everything. I believe that one day it will be very important to have such documented facts.”
Psychological warfare center
The leaked information from the SDA was published at the end of September by the websites Delfi Estonia, VSquare, and FRONTSTORY.PL. Their analysis reveals that the SDA functions as a psychological warfare center. The agency reportedly employs “ideologists,” eight “commentators,” and a “bot farm operator.”
In the first four months of 2024 alone, the SDA’s bot army, nicknamed the “Russian digital army,” created 33.9 million comments. They produced 39,899 “content units” on social media, including 4,641 videos and 2,516 memes and graphics. “Clear quotas are set. For example, in one project targeting Germany and France, the quotas were as follows: Cartoons – 60. Memes – 180. Comments on articles – 400,” the authors of the article state.
The main target of the operations this year was to be the elections in Europe and the US.
“Elections to the European Parliament will be held in the summer of 2024. Critical milestones are approaching in 2024, including elections to the Bundestag and the US presidential election. The outcome of these campaigns will largely determine the West’s future policy of sanctions against Russia and support for Ukraine,” journalists quote from the document.
The documents also contain an assessment of the current state of public opinion. “Public opinion in the target countries of the project is gradually shifting towards reducing or completely stopping support for Ukraine.”
The strategy was also supposed to include precise instructions on how to write fake comments. “Write a comment from a 38-year-old German woman who believes that Germany is losing its main source of income: industry and a strong economy — we must stop wasting money on Ukraine and return to cheap Russian energy!”
Similar instructions were written for commentators targeting American audiences: “Write a 400-character comment from a 38-year-old American woman who believes that military aid to Ukraine and Israel should be limited. Zelensky is wasting taxpayers’ money!”
A similar narrative was created to target the Polish online space: “Write a 400-character comment from a 38-year-old Polish woman who believes that the government is responsible for the rise in food prices in the country. Poland is flirting with Ukraine, allowing a million Ukrainian migrants to settle in Poland, take people’s jobs, and collect benefits, and it can’t even resolve the issue of Ukrainian grain to protect its farmers! As a result, ordinary citizens who love this country and pay taxes are suffering. This is not good for anything!”
The strategy proposes to conduct a comprehensive counter-campaign against liberal globalists, their platform, and prominent representatives before the European Parliament elections in the countries with the largest representation in the EU electoral body, namely Germany, France, Spain, Italy, and Poland.
The document outlines four key narratives to be promoted. For example: “Liberals and globalists spread fear and want us to panic. We are supposed to fear war, climate disasters, viruses, Russian attacks. They seek to subjugate us through fear. In addition, they try to exploit conflicts over family values, LGBT rights, and economic uncertainty caused by the war in energy and agriculture.”
AfD at twenty percent
Several documents confirm that the SDA was particularly active in Germany, where it supported the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party.
“The AfD’s election program for the 2024 elections can be considered a key Russian strategic narrative: It is noteworthy that the AfD’s program for the 2024 elections states that the cause of the conflict in Ukraine is the ‘dominance of non-European powers’. These powers are accused of ‘dragging European countries into conflict,'” the project document describes.
Another document shows that the success of the project is measured by the popularity of the Alternative for Germany (AfD) party. According to the document, which lists “key performance indicators,” the project could be considered successful if the AfD achieved 20% in the polls. Other opinion polls are also used to measure success in target countries: “Growth in the number of Germans who are unwilling to sacrifice their prosperity for the sake of victory – 55 percent.”
To achieve these goals, formulations such as the following are proposed: “The US is waging economic and hybrid warfare against Russia at the expense of Germany. NATO and EU anti-Russian decisions primarily harm Germans.”
The metrics for success are similar for France, for example: “The number of French people who do not want to sacrifice their prosperity for the sake of victory over Russia/for the sake of Ukraine should exceed 44%.” National Rally (formerly known as the National Front) should have 20% in the polls.
We can declare success
The documents also show that the SDA agency assessed its success after the European Parliament elections. In its post-election analysis, it noted an increase in right-wing representatives in the European Parliament: “We can therefore declare the social media campaign a serious success.”
However, the same document warns that the success of the far right in the European Parliament does not necessarily mean success for Russia. As a cautionary example, it cites Giorgia Meloni’s “hawkish” stance (she vocally supported Ukraine) and points out that even Marine Le Pen’s support is not without complications, as Le Pen publicly applauded Zelensky during his visit to Paris.
“Overall, however, the general success of the far right in the European Parliament elections is perceived globally as a success for Russian foreign policy and, moreover, for Russian propaganda,” the document states.
SDA employees also create fake Ukrainian documents and official quotes that are disseminated in the media. For example, the SDA created fake documents and quotes related to the crash of an Il-76 aircraft in Belgorod in January 2024. Russian propaganda claimed at the time that the plane was carrying 65 Ukrainian prisoners of war and accused Ukraine of shooting down the plane. These “forgeries,” as the SDA itself calls them, were created to convince the public that Ukraine was covering up the facts.
The document, entitled “Register of Fakes and Doubles,” details 73 cases in which the SDA created disinformation for dissemination.
“Our new team came up with a story about child abductions. The Americans published it. That’s a success!” boasted Sofia Zakharova, who is associated with the Russian presidential administration. The record comes from the minutes of an SDA meeting in September 2023.
The “Other Ukraine” project
A separate project called “The Other Ukraine” focuses on Ukraine. The project with this name has previously been linked in the media to Ukrainian oligarch in exile and close friend of Vladimir Putin, Viktor Medvedchuk. Leaked documentation now suggests that the project is also supported and managed by the SDA agency, according to the authors of the analysis of the leaked documents. According to them, the goal is to “position Viktor Medvedchuk as a consistent fighter for a peaceful future for Ukraine.”
“There is an alternative to war. Medvedchuk talks about peaceful dialogue as an alternative to a possible nuclear war,” the document states. The project proposes the use of the Ukrainian language for propaganda purposes.
“A full-fledged news agency focused on Ukrainians operating within the ideology of ‘Another Ukraine’ must appear in the information space,” the project document continues. “This source should ensure the loyalty of ‘new Russian Ukrainians’ to the Russian president and active support for his policies.”
This is followed by a comprehensive table with a detailed media plan: it specifies what texts, videos, infographics, and photos should be produced and published and how often. For example, the guidelines require “comments in support and defense,” and the quota is set at 300 comments per day.
Another campaign proposes dividing Ukraine into 20 regions and preparing information operations for each region. Here is a proposal for 50,000 comments in 20 regions of Ukraine per month.
Office in Kaliningrad
In another document entitled “Information Operations Project office Baltics,” the SDA considers establishing a center in Kaliningrad that would focus on the Baltic states, Poland, and Germany.
“Due to its geographical location and historical cultural ties with Europe, the Kaliningrad region is the most suitable springboard for organizing and conducting information operations in EU countries,” the document states.
The project names the following objectives: spreading Russian narratives, influencing political and economic decisions, influencing electoral processes, creating groups and networks of supporters, promoting the interests of Russian business, and creating a system for promoting the Russian agenda in the media and on social networks.
The documents outline the structure of the new institution, including units such as an analytical monitoring center and content center, IT and IS divisions, a legal expert center, and a translation office.
Several documents mention Poland, one of the SDA’s main targets. Among other things, there is a note on the likely results of the European Parliament elections and a proposal for a counter-campaign against “liberal globalists.”
Another target of the agency is Israel. “Currently, the situation in Israel appears to be very favorable for launching a serious project to influence public opinion. The goal of such influence should be to remove Israel from the general Western anti-Russian agenda,” says a project document titled “Normal Israel.” Once again, quotas for comments, texts, and memes are proposed.
Separate goals for Eastern Europe and Central Asia are set out in a document concerning Moldova, Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. It mentions the need to “neutralize external pressure on the political leadership of these countries by mobilizing the public to support initiatives that are contrary to the interests of the United States and its allies.”
