“Russia has brought war to others, and now the war has reached its doorstep,” remarked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
On the afternoon of August 6th, the Ukrainian army breached the Russian border, overcoming a border checkpoint and two lines of defense. The Ukrainian Armed Forces made swift advancements, leading to the flight and surrender of many Russian soldiers. Kyiv is hopeful that this military maneuver will shift the dynamics of the ongoing conflict that has persisted for two years. Speculation suggests that Russia may consider a partial withdrawal of its troops from Ukraine to fortify its defense.
A special report by the ISW think tank denotes the Ukrainian Kursk campaign as a pivotal moment in the war that has the potential to reshape its course.
Support, but Exercise Caution
Pentagon Press Secretary Patrick Ryder has stated that Kyiv did not share information about the invasion plans with U.S. authorities. However, they do not see this as a sign of mistrust. In his first public comment, U.S. President Joe Biden noted that this puts Russian President Vladimir Putin in a “real dilemma.” The European Union’s High Representative for Foreign Affairs, Josep Borrell, voiced support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ actions in Russian territory on behalf of the entire EU. He emphasized that the invasion of Kursk demonstrates Putin’s inability to break the Ukrainian people’s resistance. While there is widespread support for Ukraine, the West has also cautioned Ukraine about potential challenges.
Challenges Loom Ahead
U.S. officials have expressed surprise at the level of preparedness of the Ukrainian operation. They are, however, still assessing whether Ukraine will be able to maintain its position in Russia. Additionally, they caution that this campaign has left Ukraine more vulnerable. Military analyst George Barros stated, “The Ukrainian campaign in Kursk is de facto beneficial.”
As per analysts cited in the Wall Street Journal, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are expected to face substantial difficulties following the attack on the Kursk region. The report states that Ukrainian forces will encounter serious challenges as the area expands and Russia regroups. Moreover, experts believe that the assault on the Kursk region may have weakened Kyiv’s defense by diverting scarce troops and military equipment from the main frontline.
The attack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces on the Kursk region is deemed unwise, given the heavy losses suffered by Kyiv. Analyst Lyle Goldstein, whose comments are featured in Responsible Statecraft, expressed concerns about the advisability of the invasion. Goldstein noted that losses for the Ukrainian army are inevitable, particularly when Russia maintains a significant advantage in firepower. He also emphasized that the offensive significantly weakened the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ positions on other front sections, playing into the Russian army’s advantage. Goldstein concluded that such actions by Kyiv would lead to further escalation of the conflict.
According to CNN, Russia has reportedly moved several thousand soldiers to the Kursk region in response to Ukraine’s alleged attack on its territory, as stated by two senior American officials. However, John Kirby, a representative of the U.S. National Security Council, emphasized that the movement of Russian troops should not be interpreted as a sign of Putin abandoning ongoing military operations in northeastern or southern Ukraine. While this maneuver may pose a risk to some of Ukraine’s defensive positions, Kyiv is hopeful that it could potentially slow down the advancement of Russian forces. CNN acknowledges the apparent success of the “Kursk” operation, but U.S. and Western officials caution that Ukraine may struggle to maintain control of the territory in the long run. They also highlight that it is premature to assess the overall impact of this operation on the outcome of the conflict.
According to The New York Times, American officials have advised Kyiv to avoid launching major offensives in the southern or eastern regions this year and to carefully evaluate Russia’s defensive capabilities. The article also mentions that even if Russian forces are shifted from Donbas to the Kursk region, the Ukrainian Armed Forces would require additional personnel to effectively advance in that area. The authors of the piece suggest that Ukraine has already deployed a substantial number of troops in Kursk and may lack sufficient reserves to continue.
Russia’s Priority is Defense, and Ukraine’s – Favorable Negotiations
In an interview with “Fortuna,” political commentator Buka Petriashvili stated that Russia lacks the resources to halt the Ukrainian advance. Petriashvili emphasized that it is prudent for the Ukrainians to consolidate their positions, compel the withdrawal of Russian forces, and redirect them to safeguard their own territory. Notably, Putin has announced that defending Russian territories and ejecting foreign forces is now the top priority. Similarly, Ukraine has indicated that seizing Russian territories is not its primary goal. Petriashvili believes that Ukraine will be in a much stronger position at the negotiating table if talks become feasible.
The Myth of Russia Has Collapsed
According to Ukrainian political scientist Yevhen Magda, Ukraine is aiming to hold onto the territories it has occupied as a means to destabilize Russia and potentially bring about changes on the front. In an interview with Polish PAP, Magda emphasized that the controlled areas are strategically important for Ukraine and thus, Ukrainian forces are not expected to withdraw quickly or easily. He also noted that Ukraine’s offensive actions have shattered the myth of an invincible, great Russia, and this realization has reverberated not just in the West but also in China. Magda highlighted the unpreparedness of Russian President Putin in the face of current events and the revealed vulnerability of the Kadyrovites, Chechen militants supporting the Kremlin regime. He further underscored the unprecedented nature of a military invasion occurring on the territory of the world’s largest nuclear state, an unexpected turn of events. However, Kyiv has stressed its lack of intention to occupy Russian territory and has reiterated that its main goal is to protect Ukrainians from attacks originating in Russia and to strengthen its negotiating position.
