Introduction
Following Georgia’s parliamentary elections on October 26, 2024, the nation finds itself at a critical juncture in its democratic development. The ruling party, Georgian Dream, retained power with approximately 54% of the vote; however, public outcry and international criticism over alleged irregularities have raised serious questions about the country’s political future.
Election Results and Protests
Official Results and Opposition Response
According to official results, Georgian Dream leaders assert that the elections were transparent and fair. However, opposition leaders and Georgia’s President Salome Zurabishvili have voiced concerns over alleged electoral fraud and irregularities. Georgian Dream leader Mamuka Mdinaradze stated that the party has documented 81 confirmed cases of fraud, which they intend to present to the Prosecutor’s Office. President Zurabishvili has publicly supported the people’s calls for democratic protection, urging citizens to defend democracy and calling the election critical for Georgia’s democratic future. She accuses the Georgian Dream of steering the country away from its pro-Western aspirations.
Following Georgia’s parliamentary election on October 26, 2024, prominent political figures have expressed sharply contrasting views on the election’s legitimacy, underscoring the mounting tensions within the country.
Bidzina Ivanishvili, the founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, celebrated the party’s reported victory with over 53% of the vote. He attributed this success to the Georgian Dream’s emphasis on peace and stability, particularly concerning Russia. Ivanishvili argued that avoiding conflict and maintaining Georgia’s sovereignty was central to the party’s appeal, reflecting public support for a cautious approach to foreign policy (source link).
Tina Bokuchava, leader of the opposition United National Movement, sharply contested these results, alleging widespread electoral fraud and voter intimidation. Bokuchava accused the Georgian Dream of undermining democratic processes and called for mass protests in Tbilisi to demand re-election, amplifying support among citizens who felt the election process was compromised (source link).
President Salome Zourabishvili, a pro-European advocate, added to the controversy by publicly rejecting the election outcome. She argued that the election was influenced by a “Russian special operation” aimed at derailing Georgia’s path to Europe. In her call for protests, Zourabishvili urged citizens to resist the “total falsification” of votes, framing this as a critical moment for Georgia’s democratic future (source link).
The contrasting positions of these key figures underscore a deepening political divide in Georgia. While the ruling party defends its mandate, both the opposition and the president are rallying public dissent over alleged electoral misconduct, signaling potential instability ahead.
Historical Context: A Recurrence of Electoral Disputes
It is important to view the 2024 parliamentary elections in light of Georgia’s history of electoral controversies to better understand them. The 2020 parliamentary elections were similarly marred by severe criticism and allegations of vote tampering and misuse of administrative resources. These recurring disputes erode public trust and increase political polarization, presenting ongoing challenges to democratic governance in the country.
Fraud Allegations
Exit Poll Discrepancies
The reliability of the official results has been questioned by exit poll data that contradicts the Central Election Commission (CEC) report. Exit polls conducted by HarrisX and Edison Research, commissioned by opposition-affiliated media, show Georgian Dream’s support significantly lower than reported by the CEC. In contrast, a third exit poll conducted by GORBI for the pro-government TV channel Imedi indicated a convincing victory for Georgian Dream.
Political Analyst Commentary
Irakli Melashvili, a political analyst, highlights the need for more robust opposition figures capable of mobilizing public support in response to alleged electoral issues. In an interview with Radio Fortuna, Melashvili emphasized, “Whether it’s a Maidan-like event or the events of 2003, a different kind of opposition is needed. We don’t have a politician, especially in the opposition, with strong enough support that people would easily follow. If a substantial amount of facts are revealed and the government remains stubborn, how things will develop and how much public dissatisfaction will surge is something no one can predict. Such events are usually not pre-planned; it all depends on the public’s mood. If society starts to act, what follows is another matter. Today, the first task is to clarify what happened – facts need to be presented, not opinions. Once the facts are out, it will first depend on the public. The West cannot build a democratic state on our behalf.”
TV Pirveli Investigation and Allegations in Gardabani
Adding to the controversy, an investigative report by journalist Nodar Meladze on TV Pirveli revealed alleged instances of electoral misconduct in the Gardabani region. The program aired evidence that residents were subjected to bribery and intimidation, reportedly to sway votes in favor of the Georgian Dream. These revelations have intensified public scrutiny, leading to calls for a thorough investigation into the election’s integrity
In response to these allegations, the Georgian Prosecutor’s Office has initiated an investigation into purported falsification of the parliamentary elections. President Zurabishvili has been summoned to testify, although she contends it is not her role to provide evidence, emphasizing that investigative authorities must assume that responsibility.
International Criticism
International observers and foreign governments have raised serious concerns regarding alleged irregularities in the election process. EU ministers issued a joint statement condemning all violations of international norms for free and fair elections (https://www.government.nl/documents/diplomatic-statements/2024/10/28/joint-statement-of-eu-ministers-on-the-elections-in-georgia). U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken remarked, “The turnout at the elections underscores the Georgian people’s commitment to democracy; however, international and domestic observers noted that the pre-election environment was marked by misuse of administrative resources, vote-buying, and voter intimidation by the ruling party” (https://www.state.gov/georgia-parliamentary-elections/).
Government Response
Georgian Dream leaders have dismissed the fraud allegations as unfounded, accusing the opposition of attempting election manipulation. Mamuka Mdinaradze criticized opposition claims of vote falsification, particularly those suggesting up to 300,000 votes were fabricated. He emphasized that approximately 90% of voters cast their ballots electronically, underscoring transparency. Mdinaradze also noted, “We have 81 confirmed, identified cases which we will submit to the Prosecutor’s Office since the opposition cannot or will not present concrete evidence” (https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41360#gsc.tab=0).
Political Scientist Insight
In an interview with Radio Fortuna, Ramaz Sakvarelidze, a political scientist, offers an alternative perspective, suggesting that the government might consider new elections if more substantial evidence of fraud emerges. He states, “The government might consider holding new elections if clearer arguments emerge. Saying the election was rigged is not convincing enough. In fact, new elections would suit the government; there is no guarantee they would lose. The opposition would likely receive even fewer votes. Once they see that Georgia’s citizens and government both stand firmly, Western parties may slowly find reasons to step back, as such pressure could harm them. We are watching this process until the public withdraws its support. Then, the West might plead with them, as before, to rejoin Parliament. They’ll say, ‘Our partners are advising us.’ Everything will appear logical, showing that pro-European parties have considered European advice. And then, we’ll return to normal life.”
The “Russian Law”: Background and Significance
Why Is It Called the “Russian Law”?
Another critical issue leading up to the 2024 elections was the controversial “Foreign Influence” law, officially known as the “Foreign Influence” law. This law requires organizations receiving over 20% of their funding from foreign sources to register as “foreign agents.” Critics argue it could threaten media freedom and stifle democratic dissent, noting its similarity to Russia’s 2012 “foreign agents” law, which is widely used to restrict independent media and civil society. Many fear adopting a similar law in Georgia could significantly affect civil society.
Public Response and Protests
The “Russian Law” has sparked massive protests across Georgia, with tens of thousands of citizens taking to the streets on multiple occasions. President Zurabishvili publicly condemned the law, calling it “Russian in its essence” (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/5/18/georgias-president-vetoes-controversial-foreign-agentsbill). On October 28, in one of the largest demonstrations, thousands gathered in Tbilisi, demanding the law’s repeal and the preservation of Georgia’s Western trajectory. International bodies, including the EU and the U.S., have expressed solidarity with protesters, emphasizing the need for democratic norms and transparency in Georgia.
Government’s Perspective on the Law
Despite widespread opposition, Georgian Dream leaders defend the Foreign Influence Law as necessary for transparency. Parliament Speaker Shalva Papuashvili argued, “The purpose of our law is to ensure transparency in society, and it has no connection to Russia’s law” (https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/6/3/georgian-opposition-plan-coalition-as-foreign-agent-law-adopted). Georgian Dream representatives compare this law to similar legislation in other countries, emphasizing the importance of monitoring foreign influence on Georgian civil society and ensuring national interests are safeguarded.
International Reactions and EU Integration Prospects
The combination of alleged election irregularities and the passage of the Foreign Influence Law has strained Georgia’s relationship with the European Union. EU representatives have urged the Georgian government to refrain from enacting such legislation, warning it could jeopardize Georgia’s EU membership aspirations. President Joe Biden also addressed the issue, urging the Georgian government to repeal the law, stating that it restricts freedom of expression and raises concerns about Georgia’s commitment to democratic principles (https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-room/statements-releases/2024/10/29/statement-from-president-joe-biden-on-democratic-backsliding-in-the-country-of-georgia/).
Possible Scenarios for Georgia’s Post elections
Possible Scenarios for Georgia’s Post-Election Future
With the nation polarized over the October 26 parliamentary elections, Georgia faces several potential outcomes, each with significant implications for its democratic stability and international relations. Here are some of the possible scenarios:
Continued Protests and Public Pressure
Should the Georgian Dream party refuse calls for new elections, the opposition, led by figures like Giorgi Vashadze, is likely to sustain large-scale protests and intensify efforts to garner international support. This scenario could see Georgia’s streets filled with ongoing demonstrations, demanding a response from both the government and international community. If protests grow in size and frequency, public pressure might eventually push Georgian Dream leaders to consider compromise measures, though these could fall short of new elections
International Sanctions and Diplomatic Isolation
If Western nations refuse to recognize the election results, Georgia could face economic sanctions, the suspension of international aid, and a setback in its Euro-Atlantic integration ambitions. Analyst Ramaz Sakvarelidze suggests that the consequences of such diplomatic isolation could be severe, potentially derailing Georgia’s progress toward EU and NATO membership. This scenario would put the Georgian government under increasing strain, possibly forcing it to either reform or risk further international isolation.
Domestic Political Compromise or New Elections
Another possible outcome could be a domestic political compromise, where Georgian Dream agrees to electoral reforms or to partial re-elections in contested districts to appease both the opposition and international observers. Political scientist Ramaz Sakvarelidze suggests that new elections may even favor Georgian Dream if public dissatisfaction remains limited. However, for this to happen, the opposition would need to present substantial evidence of fraud to compel a reconsideration of the election results.
Western Influence and Democratic Reforms
The West’s role may prove critical in shaping Georgia’s post-election path. Sustained diplomatic pressure, coupled with conditions for financial assistance, could lead the government to prioritize democratic reforms. Western leaders have already emphasized that strengthening Georgia’s democratic institutions is essential for future EU accession talks. If Western powers persist in advocating for transparency and accountability, the government may be compelled to make democratic concessions to maintain these alliances.
Amid these potential scenarios, Georgian Dream has consistently argued that its focus remains on maintaining stability within Georgia, particularly given regional threats. Two days before the election, Bidzina Ivanishvili, the Honorary Chair of the ruling Georgian Dream party, gave a rare television interview to journalist Magda Anikashvili on Imedi TV, which aired on October 21, 2024, just before the parliamentary elections. In this nearly 1.5-hour pre-recorded interview, Ivanishvili addressed several key issues, including his concerns about specific political figures advocating for Georgia to open a “second front” in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, which he argued could endanger Georgia’s sovereignty and national security. https://civil.ge/archives/629429
Ivanishvili further emphasized that his party’s commitment to peace is grounded in preventing Georgia from being drawn into a conflict that could destabilize the nation. According to him, the Georgian Dream’s priority is to focus on diplomatic and economic stability to protect Georgian sovereignty and avoid conflict escalation in light of the war in Ukraine. The ruling party argues that calls for aggressive policies against Russia only heighten risks for Georgia, steering the country away from its long-term goal of peaceful development and European integration.
Conclusion: A Critical Moment for Georgia
Georgia stands at a critical moment. The government’s response to electoral grievances, international criticism, and adherence to democratic standards will play a decisive role in shaping its future relationships with the West. As Georgian leaders also navigate domestic pressures and sovereignty concerns, the balance between internal stability and external partnerships will be vital. With the EU and the United States urging significant reforms, Georgia’s next steps will determine whether it continues along the path to EU integration or risks isolation. Georgian Dream insists that maintaining peace and stability is central to its vision for Georgia, especially in light of the challenges posed by the Ukraine conflict. The coming weeks and months will be crucial in defining Georgia’s democratic identity, its commitment to neutrality, and its place on the global stage.
References
https://www.france24.com/en/europe/20241029-georgia-launches-partial-vote-recount-after-opposition-protests-election-results
https://www.voanews.com/a/georgian-opposition-pushes-rally-to-challenge-election-results-/7841602.html
https://agenda.ge/en/news/2024/41360#gsc.tab=0
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/georgia-country-alleged-election-falsification/
https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10/30/georgia-prosecutors-investigating-allegations-of-election-fraud
https://civil.ge/archives/629429
