The world remains in turmoil: armed conflicts continue in different parts of our planet, claiming countless lives. War, conflicts, killings — there seems to be no end in sight.
Not long ago, however, there appeared to be a glimmer of hope at the end of the tunnel. The meeting between the U.S. and Russian presidents in Alaska sparked cautious optimism that the war in Ukraine might be moving toward an end, and that the parties could reach some agreement. There was even talk of a possible direct meeting between Putin and Zelensky.
Unfortunately, within a short time, the picture changed: the war continues, Russia keeps attacking and bombing Ukraine and its civilian population, and there is no longer any discussion of negotiations. Even Donald Trump no longer seems as confident as before, and the latest development — Russia has sent drones into Poland, a member state of both the EU and NATO.
Why hasn’t the war ended?
“Deep interests are involved in this war. I don’t believe that serious politicians or analysts ever truly expected the Alaska meeting to bring about a quick resolution to the conflict. Let’s admit it — an end to the war doesn’t serve anyone’s interest,” former Deputy Foreign Minister Nikoloz Vashakidze told Fortuna.
“Putin would face post-war challenges: the resocialization of people returning from the front, as well as a public reckoning with the actual cost of the war for Russia. Economic problems would inevitably transform into political ones.
To be frank, ending the war isn’t in Zelensky’s interest either. He, too, would face tricky questions, and his government could face problems — especially since the war is unlikely to end in a way that fully satisfies Ukrainian society. Questions would arise: what has Ukraine lost, and what has it gained?
Europe, too, has little incentive to see the war end. At present, the strategy is to contain and wear down Russia. Under such circumstances, I don’t expect the military operations to end quickly.”
Trump and Reality
U.S. President Donald Trump stated that he initially believed ending the Russia-Ukraine war would be “the easiest thing,” but has since realized that it is not. He said this in an interview with American radio station 77 WABC:
“I basically solved seven wars. Almost all of them seemed impossible to resolve. Some had lasted over 30 years — 31, 30, 35 years — and I solved all seven… I thought Putin would be the easiest, because, you know, I got along with him well, without problems. But every time I think we’re close to a solution, he goes and drops another bomb. It’s just not good. I’m very surprised,” Trump said.
He added, “I thought it would happen rather quickly, but it turned out to be more difficult. There’s deep hatred between Putin and Zelensky. A lot of blood has been spilled. But we will end it.”
Commenting on this, Nikoloz Vashakidze told Fortuna:
“When the parties involved in a conflict are not interested in peace, it is very difficult to force them. Trump has a simplistic view of the world, but life has shown him that it is far more complicated.”
Nor does Ukraine’s president appear particularly impressed with Trump. Volodymyr Zelensky told ABC News that the Alaska summit between the U.S. and Russian presidents gave Putin exactly what he wanted:
“It is unfortunate that Ukraine was not present, because I believe President Trump gave Putin what he wanted. He very much wanted a meeting with the U.S. president. I think Putin got it — and that is unfortunate.”
On a possible direct meeting with Putin, Zelensky said the conditions Putin proposed were unacceptable and that the Russian leader is “playing games with the U.S.” According to him, a bilateral meeting between the two leaders is not impossible. Still, it would certainly not take place on Russian soil.
Regarding security guarantees from American and European allies after the war, Zelensky said that any such guarantees for Ukraine must ultimately rest on the Ukrainian army itself.
Is the War Ending or Just Beginning?
“Putin’s imperialist plan will not end with the conquest of Ukraine — this will only be the beginning,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said at the ambassadors’ conference at the German Foreign Ministry. He stressed that Russia is doing everything it can to weaken Europe.
“We face Russian hybrid attacks every day, with increasing intensity — including against our infrastructure. Moscow’s provocations extend to the North and Baltic Seas,” Merz noted.
On the night of September 10, during a large-scale Russian assault on Ukraine, Russian drones repeatedly violated Polish airspace. According to the Polish government, some of the drones were shot down.
“What’s happening with Russia’s violation of Polish airspace? It has begun!” Trump wrote on social media.
Nikoloz Vashakidze commented:
“Europe must not let this slide. This is a traditional Russian tactic — first, they test the waters with a kind of pilot project, then they escalate. Remember the Red Field incident in Georgia in 2008? That was a test of reactions. In effect, Russia was given the green light at that time. If today’s incident is met with an acceptable response, the next blow could target the Baltic states.
But today the situation is very different from 2008 — Poland is an EU member. That changes many things. The question remains, however: does Russia have the resources? For Putin, war is an existential matter. Russia can survive only in conditions of permanent war. Europe, on the other hand, is reluctant to leave its comfort zone and avoids difficult decisions. Putin exploits this — just as a street bully takes advantage of someone raised in a normal family who avoids confrontation.”
Avoidance or Engagement?
According to Reuters, “initial data indicates that the incident in Poland was a deliberate incursion by Russian drones.” Nevertheless, “NATO does not consider it an armed attack.”
NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte declared that the alliance remains vigilant and is ready to defend every inch of its territory:
“We saw a very effective response from NATO and its allies — including Poland, the Netherlands, Italy, and Germany. Their commitment was impressive. We demonstrated that we can defend every inch of NATO territory, including our airspace,” he said.
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen expressed solidarity with Poland:
“Europe stands firmly with Poland. We need more pressure on Russia to bring it to the negotiating table. We need more sanctions.”
She also confirmed that the EU will help member states bordering Russia monitor and secure their frontiers.
What Do Ukrainians Think — and Europeans?
A recent European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) survey raised many questions. One of the most revealing concerns the contrasting views of Europeans and Ukrainians on how the war should end and what should follow in Ukraine and the EU.
The poll highlighted a sharp divide: Ukrainians want weapons for victory, while most Europeans view arms shipments primarily as a means to strengthen Kyiv’s hand at the negotiating table.
This divergence is also reflected in public opinion regarding Ukraine’s membership in the EU and NATO. Ukrainians primarily see such membership as recognition of their courage. In Western capitals, however, EU and NATO membership is generally considered only in the context of a possible compromise with Russia.
